U.S. Tightens Customs Oversight: Over 40 Countries Flagged for Transshipment Risks—AI to Target Tariff Evasion

The U.S. White House recently released a trade report titled “The Great Transshipment Scam,” stating that some Chinese goods are being transshipped through third countries—repackaged, relabeled, or accompanied by altered trade documents—before entering the United States in an effort to avoid higher tariffs imposed on goods from specific countries of origin. The report identifies more than 40 countries and regions as high-risk economies for illegal transshipment.

The U.S. estimates that such transshipment trade may involve approximately $75 billion worth of goods annually, potentially resulting in $19 billion to $26 billion in lost tariff revenue each year. However, the report notes that estimates vary among agencies and are based on models and data analysis; these figures do not mean that all goods passing through these countries constitute illegal transshipments.

The report highlights trading partners such as Canada, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, as well as countries including Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Brazil. According to the U.S., these countries' strong manufacturing, logistics, port, and re-export capabilities could make them potential transit points for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market.

Of particular significance is the U.S. use of artificial intelligence and global trade data to analyze abnormal trade routes, origin declarations, and product composition in an effort to identify potential tariff evasion. Exporters should therefore expect closer U.S. customs scrutiny of country of origin, HS codes, supplier information, trade routes, and importer declarations.

These policy developments highlight the growing importance of customs data, trade flows, and supply-chain visibility in international trade regulation. As global tariff differences continue to widen, foreign trade companies need to monitor not only tariff policies in their target markets but also changes in trading partners, sourcing locations, export destinations, and actual trade routes.

For foreign trade companies and trade-data analytics platforms, continuously tracking importers, exporters, HS codes, trade volumes, and trade-route changes can help businesses identify market shifts and supply-chain adjustments at an early stage, enabling them to respond to emerging risks and opportunities more effectively.