Global Trade Surges 12.5% in H1 2026, Driven by AI and EV Supply Chains

Global merchandise trade saw a significant surge in the first half of 2026, expanding by an estimated 12.5% year-over-year to reach approximately $13.7 trillion . This growth is part of a broader trend that also saw services trade increase by 10.5% during the same period .

A key driver of this expansion has been the soaring demand for high-tech goods. In the first quarter of 2026, trade in artificial intelligence (AI) -related products and electric vehicle (EV) supply chains experienced remarkable growth. Specifically, trade in critical energy transition minerals jumped by 38%, semiconductors by 25%, and batteries by 15% . This highlights how technological advancements are becoming a primary engine for global commerce.

However, analysts caution that the outlook is not without risks. The growth is partially attributed to price increases caused by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, new waves of U.S. tariffs are deepening trade fragmentation, prompting many businesses to adopt a "world-minus-one" strategy, which could reshape global supply chains in the long term .